As we approach the second half of 2025, freight buyers are navigating renewed volatility. Rate stability earlier this year is giving way to mounting pressure from geopolitical tensions, Red Sea disruptions, and early seasonal demand. Strategic planning is essential as global capacity tightens and rate increases loom.

Ocean Freight: Tightening Conditions Ahead
– Asia–Europe lanes are seeing rising rates as early peak season demand collides with persistent vessel delays and blank sailings.
– Red Sea rerouting continues to drive up transit times and operating costs, pushing rate levels across East–West corridors.
– Spot rates from Asia to Europe and North America have risen 8–15% in recent weeks, with further GRIs likely in July and August.
Outlook: Moderate to strong increases are expected through Q3, especially for shippers reliant on spot market capacity.

Air Freight: Capacity Pressures Return
– Space remains tight across major export regions, particularly in South China and Southeast Asia, with e-commerce volumes surging ahead of Q3 restocking.
– Fuel surcharges remain elevated, and limited aircraft availability is putting pressure on urgent cargo bookings.
Outlook: Expect sustained high rates through the summer, especially on Asia–Europe and Europe–Middle East lanes.

Road Freight: Subtle Increases and Ongoing Strain
– Intra-European routes are experiencing gradual rate increases, driven by continued driver shortages, higher tolls, and tightened EU mobility regulations.
– Capacity remains stable but constrained in peak regions like Central Europe, with Romania–Germany, Poland, and the Benelux corridor showing longer transit variability.
– Fuel volatility and cross-border compliance costs are contributing to upward pricing pressure on both FTL and LTL shipments.
Outlook: Expect moderate rate increases through Q3, particularly on long-haul intra-EU lanes and groupage services. Planning ahead remains essential to avoid delays or last-minute surcharges.

Strategic Takeaways for Shippers
– Secure space early – July to September bookings are already tightening
– Leverage modal flexibility – combining ocean and air solutions may improve reliability
– Review routing options and transit times to avoid congestion-affected hubs
– Stay closely connected to your forwarder for allocation visibility and contract optimization

Conclusion
The second half of 2025 is likely to bring firmer rates, tighter space, and heightened uncertainty. With proactive planning and the right partnerships, businesses can stay ahead of disruption. Moorhouse Logistics is here to support you with flexible routing, transparent pricing, and real-time insights to help you ship smarter.

‍

‍